Thursday, April 3, 2014

Has the PQ lost its chance for a win on Apr. 7?

The general election in Quebec seems to be slipping away from the Parti Québécois, which had entered the contest in first place and was hoping for—perhaps counting on—a majority victory on Apr. 7, 2014.

According to the latest Ipsos Reid poll for CTV News, Liberal support among decided voters is steady at 37 per cent, while support for the PQ has slid four points to 28 per cent. This latest drop-off in support for the PQ, however, seems to be benefitting the two smaller parties—Coalition Avenir Québec (19%) and Québec Solidaire (13%)—and not the first place Liberals. Among eligible voters, seven per cent remain undecided, and over a third of respondents said their vote could change by election day.

This is the second poll this week to put the Liberals well ahead of the PQ and headed for a majority if their support holds through to Apr. 7. An earlier Forum Research Inc. survey showed 41 per cent support for the Liberals and 29 per cent for the PQ.

This would ordinarily be really good news for most Canadians, but our elation needs to be tempered by the memory of polls prior to the 2012 Alberta and the 2013 British Columbia provincial elections that were well off the mark. The two polls do, however, tend to support each other and that’s encouraging.

Perhaps, after the evening of Apr. 7, Canadians who care about such things can take a big breath of relief that those in Quebec who want to break up our country will have to wait awhile to get their referendum—a virtual certainty should fortunes change and the Parti Québécois win a majority next Monday.

1 comment:

  1. 308 com has the best analysis I know of, including a very cautious appraisal of Forum Research polls. I recall last Quebec election they were somewhat out in their prediction; read his comments.
    Lat election Marois was a sure winner up till the last wk-end, then barely eked out a minority over Charest. This suggests a lot of voters changed their intention at the last minute, or never reported accurately to the pollsters. I would not rule out a return of votes to PQ, especially if Marois is seen to be humiliated. One has to be concerned about premature celebrating in English language media, PQ would dearly love a manufactured 'Incident" to sway voters at the last minute.
    All to say that polling is very complicated with 4 parties and 2 very polarized language groups. I think it best to wait for the vote before analyzing too much, lets hope for the best.