Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Romney seems sure to win N.H., but who’ll be best of the rest?

Mitt Romney seems assured of victory in New Hampshire’s Republican presidential primary. All polls have him running well ahead of his competition though some do show him slipping somewhat in the past few days. The latest polls have Romney leading Ron Paul and the rest of the candidates by margins of 15 to 24 percentage points.

Romney’s victory in Iowa last week coupled with a victory in New Hampshire will make him a pretty safe bet to win the GOP nomination—not a certainty, but I’d not bet against him.

While I’m not an avid fan of Mitt Romney—I prefer Jon Huntsman, or maybe even Newt Gingrich over him—I am bowing to the weight of polling evidence that places him so far in front, his nomination seems almost inevitable.

For what it is worth, here’s how the candidates will score tonight, as I see it.

Mitt Romney at 37 per cent, Jon Huntsman at 19 per cent, Ron Paul at 19 per cent (but with fewer votes than Huntsman), Newt Gingrich at 12.5 per cent, Rick Santorum at 11.5 per cent and Rick Perry at 1 per cent.

I believe Huntsman has the momentum to catch Paul, though who of those two will will finish second is really anybody’s guess. Although fourth and fifth place is also a toss-up between Gingrich and Santorum, I favour the former Speaker to edge out the former senator.

Copyright © 2012 Russell G. Campbell. All Rights Reserved.


1 comment:

  1. mitt romenys gonna win new hamshire because he has cnn, most of Foxnews abc nbc and ann Coulter and Glenn Beck endorsing him and even a so called witch. thats why but I think south carolina is more Conservative and I think Newt ginrich will win that he is in second place and gaining in south carolina.will be a game changer from there on the modern conservatives and the more rite wing conservative take over so people like Ron Paul and Mitt Romeny and John Hunts man even though I like jh will not do well and santorum perry and gingrich should do better