Friday, December 16, 2011

Is poor NDP performance allowing the Bloc to recover?

The abysmal performance of the federal New Democrats seems to be giving the demoralized Bloc Québécois room for hope of making a recovery in Quebec. So Jack “The Bloc-slayer” Layton’s hard work in Quebec could soon be for naught after the lacklustre performance of his party under the interim leadership of Nycole Turmel.

As reported by The Canadian Press, a recent “Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey indicates the NDP’s support in the province [Quebec] has plunged to 26 per cent—tied with the Bloc Quebecois and down 16 points since the NDP swept 59 of Quebec’s 75 seats in last May’s election.” The Bloc, Liberals, Conservatives and Greens all seem to have made gains since May.

Harris-Decima chairman Allan Gregg explained that support for the New Democrats has been in decline in Quebec since early October and that the downward trend has accelerated in the last few weeks, notwithstanding the fact a leadership race to choose Layton’s successor is underway. Gregg said that he can’t recall a party ever losing so much ground during a leadership contest.

Nycole Turmel may be the least effective leader of the official opposition in memory, but I expected the NDP leadership campaigns would offset her poor performance. Apparently not.

With this poll as a backdrop, its amusing to read Nycole Turmel’s prediction that her party will defeat the Conservatives in the 2015 election. Doesn’t she know this is the Christmas Season, not April Fool’s?

It is disappointing, though, to see the Bloc on the rebound.

© 2011 Russell G. Campbell


  1. I don't put much weight into a single poll years away from the next election as an indicator of serious movement of the voter base.

    The NDP won QC without a ground game or candidates that were actually in the country.

    Waves in QC have a shelf life and the BLC mistook their expiry date.

    The inability of the CPC, LPC to grow in QC is notable.

    The majority without QC: Priceless

    The Democratic Reform of 30 new seat will end the ability of QC-Maritimes to have 2 much weight.

  2. The separatist movement is on life support. If the NDP does fail in Quebec than I think the Bloc will come back and at least gain opposition status again with the Liberals picking up more seats. I don't think they'll get back to being Her Majesty's Offical Opposition again unless something major happens.