Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Will vote-splitting and getting out the Tory vote be enough to save Hudak?

The Dalton McGuinty Liberals seem poised to “three-peat” in tomorrow’s election. Some polls show them in majority territory and none have the Progressive Conservatives in the lead. PC leader Tim Hudak needs something akin to a miracle to put him in office.

Some PC supporters take solace from the fact Tories have an excellent record of delivering their votes on election day. And, of course, the strong New Democrat showing is likely to split-off some Liberal voters. But will those factors be enough to give the PCs a last-minute reprieve? I fear they will be too little too late.

The shame of it is the PCs once held a comfortable 11-point lead on Dalton McGuinty’s Liberals, but a new Ipsos poll reported in the National Post today suggests McGuinty—with 41% support from voters—will win his third majority in a row. Not only is McGuinty’s party leading, but it is pulling away and now finds itself in majority territory.

Mr. Hudak’s PCs trail by 10 points at 31% and Andrea Horwath’s New Democratic Party is in third place with 25% support.

Should the trend suggested by this poll hold through the next 36 hours, the collapse of the Hudak campaign will virtually duplicate the sorry effort of John Tory’s 2007 team, when that brain-trust managed only 31.6% of the popular vote—about where the Tories are one day before this election.

For those interested in the technicalities of the survey: the poll of 1,020 adults for The Ottawa Citizen was conducted Sept. 30–Oct. 3 and has a margin of error of 3.1%.



© Russell G. Campbell, 2011.
All rights reserved.
The views I express on this blog are my own and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of political parties, institutions or organizations with which I am associated.


  1. OH Boy, can't wait for dalton to be premier ...again! all those high taxes; living in green.. I can't wait. I am so looking forward for high utility bills it tells me Dalton does care.

    Here's the best part-Ontario is a HAVE-NOT province. isn't that great.

  2. Surely the good will come through.
    The people are smart enough not to get taken again - or are they?

  3. None of the polls have the PC's in the lead?

    Angus Reid (10/04/11): PC 36 / Libs 33 / NDP 26

    Surprisingly, Nanos has been all over the place on this election. On the 3rd they had the PC's at 36.4, Libs at 35.6 and NDP 25.7 though now only a few days later the Libs are up at 40.

    I'm not making any guesses on this election. After all, in the Toronto election Smitherman was tied with and often leading Ford in the polls and Ford won by a landslide.

  4. You might want to consider who commissioned this poll, a newspaper that has been shamelessly pro-Liberal throughout the campaign. I don't believe McGuinty has that kind of a lead, that Ontarians are that stupid.
    Soon enough we will know.

  5. To add to Surecure's comment, I'd also note that:

    1. Angus's polling sample was larger than those of its competitors;

    2. Angus was pretty much bang on with its call in last night's election in Manitoba; and,

    3. Angus was closest of all the major pollsters in the past two federal elections.

    Just sayin.

    Hudak is certainly a weak candidate, but from what I'm hearing from ordinary folk on a day-to-day basis, the Dalton hate is a lot more palpable than what the MSM are letting on. Could mean nothing, could mean everything. We'll see...

  6. I have been disappointed in Hudak's lukewarm performance but even more upset with HQ.

    Our rural riding started very strong, lots of volunteers, organization and money coming in. HQ decides to pay attention, sends in a bunch of "experts" to show the local yokels how to do things and "poof!", as of the middle of last week most volunteers are gone, angry supporters everywhere and we are at a standstill.

    Thanks for the help guys!

  7. Same in my riding.

    Spiro is a fool. He has killed this campaign.

  8. Good! Last thing we need is to give Harper his so-called 'hat trick'.

    Putting a Conservative in charge of the province = privatize all public services, sell all public assets, squeeze every last drop of money out of the public coffers and funnel it into the pockets of their corporate interests so some CEO can buy another ivory back-scratcher.

  9. I cannot do it! I cannot vote for Jane McKenna to represent Burlington. I am a Tory at heart (bring back Bill Davis), I see a US Tea Party mentality coming through in Jane McKenna as well as Tim Hudak. I have met and spoken to Tim, Dalton, Jane and Karmel. My impression is that the the PC's have another agenda. I cannot bring myself to trust them. Sad to say, but I believe that electing Jane in Burlington would be a mistake, and not just for this reason.


  10. So, BJ, I guess you'll vote for the guy who sat on the hospital board while 60-odd patients died unnecessarily--see no evil, hear no, speak no evil, but sit by while evil prevails. And you'll be supporting a premier who has seldom if ever kept an election promise, even one he made in writing.

    If you really see a difference between Jane McKenna and the average Bill Davis PC, then I doubt you are really "a Tory at heart." My guess, BJ, is you're a progressive trying to make a point. But I guess we'll never know since you refuse to back up your comment with a real identity.

  11. No, I sat this one out. Couldn't vote for the Libs either. I voted PC in every provincial election since moving to this province, but not this time.

    Very unfair and melodramtic to equate my feelings on our PC election candidates to being a passive accomplice to 60 deaths. Come on Russ, give your head a shake.
    However, you're right that I am a progressive.... a Progressive Conservative. And there is world of difference between Bill Davis on one side and my sense of Hudak/McKenna on the other. Like I opined in my earlier post, I sense a most unprogressive conservative Tea Party-type tinge to them both.

    Anyway, it's late and I need to catch up on the election results. Oh, about my identity, it will remain anonymous. Thank you for providing this open forum and goodnight. BJ