With the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives deadlocked with less than two weeks to go in the Ontario election campaign, we could end up with a minority government on Oct. 6. Should that occur, we’ll almost certainly see Dalton McGuinty return as the premier.
In Ontario, regardless of how we vote, we are not likely to have another Tory minority. The Liberals and the NDP are so closely aligned—at the federal level, a full merger of the parties is being talked about—they’ll almost certainly form some sort of working relationship to defeat the Progressive Conservatives (PCs) as did David Peterson and Bob Rae in the bad old days.
The only silver lining here in Burlington to this lackluster Tory campaign is that, despite her low-key performance, the PCs’ Jane McKenna is leading the Liberals’ Karmel Sakran by 9.1 per cent (41.9% to 32.8%). NDP candidate Peggy Russell is at 16.5 per cent. At least, this is what Forum Research found when it surveyed more than 40,000 Ontario voters this week.
In the next-door ridings, the PCs lead in Halton with 40.8 per cent to the Liberals 37.1 per cent—too close to call—but the Tories trail in Oakville by 5.7 per cent.
The unusually large size of the poll means individual ridings can be tracked, though their results are only accurate within roughly five per cent.
Overall, Forum Research found that the PCs and the Liberals are in a statistical tie. So, four more years of Dalton McGuinty?