Monday, August 8, 2011

New national poll: Liberals and NDP in a second-place tie

The Liberals and the NDP are in a second-place tie in popular support nationally (27.0% and 26.8% respectively), according to a new national survey, the CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll. The Conservatives continue to lead with 36.2 per cent, a drop of 5.6 per cent since Nano’s last poll.

The Tories may have seen their lead reduced in the past month, but they can take heart for the regional results show them in first place in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Prairies and British Columbia. In Quebec, the Tories trail only the New Democrats (34.2% to 24.2%) with the gap narrowing noticeably from last month when the NDP were at 40.0 per cent and the Conservatives were at 24.3 per cent.

The drop off in support for the NDP in Quebec seems to have benefited the Bloc Québécois and Liberals, not at all surprising since that’s where it probably came from in the first place—sovereignists giveth and sovereignists taketh away.

On the national scene—with the exception of a shift of votes from the Bloc to the Dippers, tying them with the Grits—the picture has changed little from the pre-election months of earlier this year. A sign, to me, that Tory base support is about as solid as can be expected for a ruling party.

[The poll of 1,203 Canadians, conducted between July 25 and August 2, is accurate to within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.]



© Russell G. Campbell, 2011.
All rights reserved.
The views I express on this blog are my own and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of political parties, institutions or organizations with which I am associated.


  1. And none of it matters a whit, since we're not having an election until October 2015.

  2. Nano's predictions just prior to the last federal election went horribly wrong and were out to lunch, so he may be cooking the numbers to re-invigorate his poor showing.
    In any case Canadians have four years before the Cons renew their majority which should come as no surprise to anyone.
    Harper continues to do an excellent job at the helm and deserves the support he is receiving.
    The Liberals and Dippers - Not so much!

  3. Yes,this poll is about as valid as when the sports networks post the preseason games in any sport,no connection to the hard reality of the upcoming season.

    They just HAD to say something negative about the Conservatives,this was the best they could do,I suppose.