The Liberals and the NDP are in a second-place tie in popular support nationally (27.0% and 26.8% respectively), according to a new national survey, the CTV/Globe/Nanos Poll. The Conservatives continue to lead with 36.2 per cent, a drop of 5.6 per cent since Nano’s last poll.
The Tories may have seen their lead reduced in the past month, but they can take heart for the regional results show them in first place in Atlantic Canada, Ontario, Prairies and British Columbia. In Quebec, the Tories trail only the New Democrats (34.2% to 24.2%) with the gap narrowing noticeably from last month when the NDP were at 40.0 per cent and the Conservatives were at 24.3 per cent.
The drop off in support for the NDP in Quebec seems to have benefited the Bloc Québécois and Liberals, not at all surprising since that’s where it probably came from in the first place—sovereignists giveth and sovereignists taketh away.
On the national scene—with the exception of a shift of votes from the Bloc to the Dippers, tying them with the Grits—the picture has changed little from the pre-election months of earlier this year. A sign, to me, that Tory base support is about as solid as can be expected for a ruling party.
[The poll of 1,203 Canadians, conducted between July 25 and August 2, is accurate to within 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.]