Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Nanos Research: Conservative support strengthening

PMHarper June 10, 2011

The latest Nanos Research poll, conducted between June 16 and 19, shows the Stephen Harper’s federal Tories in a comfortable 14-point lead over the second place New Democrats, 41.8 per cent (up 2.1 per cent from the May survey) to 28.0 per cent (down 1.9). The Liberals are at 22.3 per cent, the Green Party is at 3.7 per cent and the Bloc has 3.4-per-cent support nationally.

The Tories lead in Atlantic Canada, are second in Quebec and hold double-digit leads in Ontario, Prairies and British Columbia. The NDP hold a substantial lead in Quebec and are second elsewhere, except in Ontario where they are a poor third trailing the first-place Conservatives and second-place Liberals. Full survey here.

According Nik Nanos, “this is among the highest levels of support that Nanos has tracked for the Conservatives and could be considered akin to a honeymoon effect.”

I would have thought the “honeymoon effect” would be more favorably to Jack Layton’s New Democrats, who have been cut yards of slack by the mainstream media, yet have slipped nearly two points in the Nanos poll. Sure, the media have poked a bit of fun at the Dippers’ newbie MPs, one of whom, when caught on camera, seemed on the verge of falling asleep during one session of Parliament. In a larger sense, though, the media, in general, is being very measured in its criticism—few, for example, are demanding explanations from the NDP for leader Jack Layton’s recent absences from key debates in the House.


[Nanos Research random telephone survey of 1,211 Canadians 18 years of age and older conducted June 16 to 19, 2011. Telephone survey of 1,211 Canadians is accurate + or - 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For 983 committed voters, it is accurate + or - 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.]


© Russell G. Campbell, 2011.
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The views I express on this blog are my own and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of political parties, institutions or organizations with which I am associated.


  1. The problem with all these pollsters is they try to inject their own views and project the snapshot is based on "x" number of issues.

    The depth of the collapse of the LPC/BLOC were not predicted until mid campaign. Every pollster in 2008 and 2011 under polled the CPC support.

    Same with Rob Ford, NB results.

    Waves, sweeps can expose pollsters, pundits for the snake oil they peddle.

  2. I would NOT trust an nanos poll if you paid me too. They are always dragging behind other pollsters due to their 3 day average methodology. That with their 400 person per day/poll pool really throws their results in the toilet.

    Nanos ... canadian for Nat Nowen for Sound results in polling.