Sunday, April 17, 2011

Layton making stunning comeback

Just a couple of week ago, I was about to write off the New Democrats as I assumed progressive voters would flock to the Liberal party to try to prevent a majority government led by Prime Minister Stephen Harper. But the Liberal campaign has been so lame, and Michael Ignatieff’s leadership so ineffectual that Jack Layton and his party have been handed a reprieve.

Now many progressive voters are thinking “Tory majority” and they want an effective opposition—something they are unlikely to get from Michael Ignatieff. Then Jack Layton out-performs Ignatieff by a country mile in both leaders’ debates and the floodgates opened for the NDP.

And things are only likely to get worse for Ignatieff. The Nanos Research nightly tracking poll’s leadership index has the professor at 13.4 points on “Trust”, 17 points on “Competence”, 19.1 points on “Vision for Canada” and 49.5 points overall, for a poor third place behind trend-leading Stephen Harper at 105.4 points and the surging Jack Layton at 67.6 points.

Now the Liberal leader is sounding shrill and the smell of fear hangs like a pall over Liberal Party headquarters. As happy as I am over this turn of events, I can’t help feeling sorry for this poor man who has been a fish-out-of-water since he joined the rough and tumble of Canadian politics.

Ignatieff hit a real low-point the other night repeatedly screaming “rise up!” at his audience in a Howard Dean–like rant and comparing our government to a Middle East dictatorship. Didn’t work for Dean’s 2004 Democratic presidential nomination; won’t work for Ignatieff’s bid to be prime minister. If memory serves, that was the US presidential campaign in which Ignatieff told a reporter he planned to vote for Democratic hopeful, Senator John Kerry.

Ignatieff’s rant and his cheesy attack ads show the Grits are in a downward spiral. They even have the two men, Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin, who cut the heart out of healthcare funding back in the 1990s trying to save their bacon on the campaign trail. Of course, Ignatieff wasn’t in Canada so may not know of the anti-healthcare policy of his party back then.

Seems Canadians are rising up alright, but for Layton, not Ignatieff.


© 2011 Russell G. Campbell
All rights reserved.


  1. Certainly the NDP's strong performance will definitely help them. It will be interesting to see if the surge stays nationwide or if Ontario much of that returns to the Liberals. Keep in mind that in Saskatchewan and British Columbia, it is the NDP, not the Liberals who are the greatest threat to the majority of sitting MPs. This could however, save NDP ridings like Sault Ste. Marie and Welland from a Tory pickup while Trinity-Spadina, Sudbury, and Hamilton Mountain from a Liberal one. Still I suspect the Tories will at least hold their support they had last time around in the two NDP ridings they are targeting so a lot depends on the movement between the NDP and Liberals here and voter turnout. I don't think the NDP rise in Oshawa though will be enough to defeat the Tories here as the north side is where most of the growth is and this tends to favour the Tories as opposed to the older parts of the city which isn't growing and where the NDP is strong. Nova Scotia is also a wildcard as you have an unpopular NDP provincial government which could weigh them down.

  2. I hope Layton and the NDP DO form the Official Opposition. The Liberals brand has become so rotten in the last thirty years they need to rebuild from the ground up,if there 's any support for that movement.

    If there isn't,they can go the way of the dinosaur,and we'll have the Conservatives versus the NDP in Parliament.

    Either way,the Country will survive,though a few of the rich and famous in Toronto will develop ulcers.


  3. The Liberal media wrote off Layton and NDP ground game. This is their pattern in getting all progressive behind the Liberals.

    Problem is most of us left, centre, and right have lost faith in the product from the MSM.

    We have tuned them out and use the social media including the internet to do our fact checking. The tabloid style MSM have not understood their failure with climategate and relentless scandals has negatively impacted their brand.

    NDP ground game is just behind the CPC in getting out the vote. This will be a replay of 2008 with the full squeeze on many ridings that were vulnerable with a gap of 5-10%.

    NDP will take a hit for LGR betrayal and may lose at least 5 seats.
    Will HST affect CPC-Lib seats in BC as reported by MSM?

    Follow the leaders are they on offense or defense?

    I expect a blue wave of a dozen or two to swing blue.