Saturday, April 2, 2011

Conservatives gain in the polls

Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative party has gained ground according to a poll released today, auguring well for a victory on May 2. Nanos Research’s opinion poll—their tracking poll—shows that over three days of surveys the Conservatives lead with 41.3 per cent, up from 39.4 per cent in Friday’s survey. Support for the Liberals fell to 30.3 per cent from 31.7 per cent.

This poll shows the Conservatives with a lead in every region except Atlantic Canada, and, even there, the Tories have narrowed the Liberal lead substantially: 36.2 per cent, up from 30.6 per cent, while the Liberals are at 40.1 per cent, down from 46.9 per cent. The Tories have also overtaken the Liberals and opened a five point lead in Quebec.

Traditionally, when a federal a party gets in the neighbourhood of 40 per cent of the vote, it will win a majority of the 308 seats in the House of Commons. Great news for the Tories, assuming this poll aligns with true voter preference, and they can keep support above the 40 per cent level.

Nanos Research’s daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample of 983 interviews, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent, plus or minus, 19 times. Full results, here.


© 2011 Russell G. Campbell
All rights reserved.

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