Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Rob Ford still fending off George Smitherman, but for how much longer?

The Toronto Sun reported that a Nanos Research poll released Sunday showed the Toronto mayor’s race is in a virtual tie between Rob Ford and George Smitherman.

“I’m the only one that they [Toronto voters] can trust. You can’t trust someone [George Smitherman] who blew $1 billion on an eHealth scandal and gave himself (as an MPP) a $35,000 pay increase in the middle of a recession.”

– Rob Ford

The poll found Ford continues to lead among decided voters with 43.9 per cent, while Smitherman is steadily catching up and is now at a very competitive 40.5 per cent. Joe Pantalone, the last of the also-ran candidates, has 15 per cent.

The poll, which was conducted between last Thursday and Saturday among 1,000 likely voters, showed there are about 18.5 per cent of undecided voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Such a large percentage of undecided leaves this election up for grabs.

We’ve got about a week to go before the municipal election, and I assume, as voting day gets closer, Pantalone supporters will flee to line up behind someone who actually has a chance of winning. I also assume they’ll vote for more-of-the-same at Toronto City Hall—that is what Pantalone represents—which means they’ll likely go to Smitherman.

Assuming most of the Pantalone support goes to Smitherman, Rob Ford can still win if he can convince the lion’s share of undecided voters to back him. This may be too tall and order. Pity.

If Pantalone hangs in to the bitter, die-hard end on October 25th, then Ford has a much better chance of benefitting from the resulting vote-split of left-leaning voters.

Smitherman is, of course, anticipating such an eventuality and is trying to counter with his slogan that “a vote for (Pantalone) is a vote for (Ford).”

Next Monday night will be fun.


© 2010 Russell G. Campbell
All rights reserved.


  1. Russ - thanks for the great postings - keep it up!

    I think we are in the midst of what happened in the last federal election here in Toronto - the pollsters and the media trying to whip up the electorate with poll results that are much closer than it actually is.

    I can't believe that even in Toronto too many people can get excited about George Smitherman, the reformed tax and spend LIEberal turning into a waste and gravy train reducer.

  2. Russ, I hope you are wrong. I think that Joe will grow support and Ford will hold on. It is Smitherman that will bleed over the next week. Can't say why yet. (real conservative)