Thursday, October 28, 2010

New poll: Conservatives pulling further ahead of Grits and nearing majority territory

The latest Angus Reid Public Opinion poll on federal political support has found in an online survey that 37 per cent of respondents (up 3% since September) would support the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election. The Michael Ignatieff-led Liberal Party is in second place with 26 per cent (no change), followed by the New Democrats with 19 per cent (up 1%), the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (no change), and the Green Party with six per cent (down 5%).

It’s interesting to see that the federal parties are all within a percentage point of their totals in the 2008 federal election. Also interesting, though not at all surprising is the fate of the Greens, whose large gains made in September have evaporated.

The really good news for PM Stephen Harper and his colleagues is that, in Ontario, the Tories lead the Liberals by nine points (41% to 32%). Quebec, however, is largely still a near shut-out for the Conservatives, who hold only 16 per cent support, while the Bloc continues to dominate with 39 per cent followed by the other two federalist parties which are far behind (Lib. 24%, NDP 14%).



© 2010 Russell G. Campbell
All rights reserved.


  1. It will be dismissed, in Ontario anyways as "the Ford effect".

    On the other hand;
    Judging from the reaction of many lefties they are spooked by Ford's victory. In some cases they have become rabid.

  2. I'd like to see more detail on the Quebec poll. Conservative support seems concentrated around Quebec City, Liberal support around Montreal, and Bloc everywhere else. Commentators treat Quebec as a monolith. But that's not the case.

  3. And for a little perspective, where were Mulroney's numbers heading into the 1988 election after he'd governed for four years? So please (speaking to the media here, not to Russ) spare me the canard that the Conservatives can't break 40%.

  4. Why does the EKOS poll show such a variation from this?