Thursday, September 16, 2010

Tories maintain lead in EKOS voter intention poll

At 32.4 per cent, the federal Conservatives continue to hold their long-standing lead over the Michael Ignatieff Liberals, which garnered 28.9 per cent support, according to a recent EKOS voter intention poll1. The New Democrats are a poor third in voter support with 16.6 per cent, while the Greens were at 8.9 per cent.

  • Direction of the country:
    • 50.6% right direction
    • 38.1% wrong direction
    • 11.4% DK/NR

The Tories have a slim lead in Atlantic Canada and a wide margin in Alberta and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, with the Liberals holding slim leads in Ontario and Quebec.

NDP support surpasses that of the Liberals in British Columbia and Saskatchewan/Manitoba, which cannot be good news for the hapless visitor, Michael Ignatieff, who spent the summer like a tourist getting to know Canada and trying to drum up voter support outside the traditional Liberal strongholds of Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal.

The good news for the Grits is they are no longer testing historical lows in voter popularity.

The good news for Tories is, despite a summer of hostility from the mainstream media, they’ve managed to hold onto a significantly important lead over the Grits, and a majority of voters questioned said the country is going in the right direction.

Doesn’t look like any party is going to cobble together a majority government anytime soon, except perhaps through a formal coalition.

1The field dates: September 8 – September 14, 2010. A random sample of 1,770 Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


© 2010 Russell G. Campbell
All rights reserved.


  1. Translated that means, that the arena slap down boosted Harper.

    EKOS=liberals and the number for the conservatives is higher.

    Try to get a reasonably good story re: libby/dippers before the fallout for the long gun registry.

    Finally, Jacko's on CTV sniveling about the 'don't blame my people for flip-flopping on the LGR vote.

  2. Take a look at the methodology. They included cell phones in the survey so that they had a close weighting of Canada's actual age and gender balance. They don't take into account though that younger people have lower voter turnout.

    I would bet it is closer to
    34% Con
    28% Lib
    15% NDP

  3. Liberals must be hurting because after a good summer for them they are still not neck and neck with conservatives, they must wonder what they have to do... most conservatives know and we tell them even but they don't listen. A zebra can't lose its stripes. (real conservative)