Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Ipsos Reid poll confirms Tory lead

Last week an EKOS poll had prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives at 33.4 per cent, a three percentage point lead over the Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals, which stood at 30.3 per cent. Yesterday, the National Post reported that an Ipsos Reid poll confirms the Tory lead and shows it has grown to 37 per cent of voters (Liberals 29 per cent), putting the Tories firmly in minority-government territory and nudging up against majority territory.

“Canadians still trust that the Conservative leader [Stephen Harper] is the man best placed to lead the country through tough economic times — Mr. Harper was judged best qualified by 46% of respondents, Mr. Layton by 26% and Mr. Ignatieff by 24%”

– John Ivison
National Post

The Tory lead has now grown to 8 points, the widest margin the Conservatives have enjoyed in months. We’re not back to the heady days of last October-November when Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives were polling at about 40 per cent, very much in the area required for forming a majority government. Of course, that was before issues like the treatment of Afghan detainees, Canadians go-slow attitude at Copenhagen and prorogation tilted them into downward slide and eventually a statistical tie with Michael Ignatieff’s Grits.

However, it seems that Michael Ignatieff lacks the political instincts to consolidate the advantage he was gaining over the Christmas season and into January. This despite attempts by his new team to repackage the Harvard professor.

Michael Ignatieff has turned out to be a liability rather than an asset to the political hopes of the Liberal Party of Canada. Like Stéphane Dion before him, Ignatieff needs constant managing by his aides led by his chief of staff, Peter Donolo. Ignatieff’s recent insistence that Canadian aid to African countries be somehow tied to the promotion of abortion practices is but one recent example of how prone he is to political gaffes.

As I’ve said here before, even the unrelenting pro-Liberal, anti-Conservative hammering the Conservative Party of Canada and Stephen Harper has taken from the mainstream media, especially on CTV and CBC political news shows, in the past several months has not given the Liberal Party much to celebrate in poll results.

But no one likes to back a looser. So eventually the spell Liberal Party partisans like Warren Kinsella have cast over political talk show hosts like Tom Clark will be broken. Then spin and graphics to bolster trumped up controversies will have to give way to substantive debate on real issues.

But don’t hold your breath, eh.

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© 2009 Russell G. Campbell
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  1. Thing is, Iffy did not lead the charge, on anything.
    Like EI 360, with prorogation he was a follower.

    When Iffy steps out with Liberal ideology, (global abortion funding), Canadians step back.
    When Iffy comes out with HarperLite (popular) ideology, LibDippers step back.
    And then...
    Iffy changes his mind (earned name of Iffy)

    Years of Liberals standing for nothing, and everything being a priority,
    has finally caught up with them.

  2. I did predict over a month ago when the EKOS polls first hit that everything would be fine after the Olympics. Especially since EKOS inflates Green Party support substantially higher than it exists in reality. They even had the Greens at 13.5% in January. If you ever see a poll with the Greens in double digits, the poll is tainted. The CBC now seems to only report poll numbers when they come from EKOS.

  3. Just when you thought PMSH had put the worst behind him:

    OTTAWA - A new poll suggests a political stalemate continues as Parliament returns this week, with the Conservatives and Liberals stalled in a tie for support.

    The two-week survey conducted Feb. 18-28 by The Canadian Press Harris-Decima gives the Tories and Liberals 31% each.

    The NDP has 16%, the Greens have 12% and the Bloc Quebecois is at 8%.

    Pollster Allan Gregg says it seems that stalemate is the new normal in Canadian politics, with neither of the two main parties able to make a breakthrough in a key area.

    Neither can grab the federal vote in Quebec, the Tories aren’t making headway in major urban centres and the Liberals are still marginal in rural Canada and on the Prairies.

    The survey contacted 2,035 people as part of an omnibus telephone poll and is considered accurate to within 2.2 percentage points 19 times in 20.

  4. With global cleansing with Canadian dollars the top priority for the past several weeks Stephen Harper now looks to trim a record $56-billion deficit on Canadian tax payers. On the other hand Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff should take inventory with his comment of encourage employers to hire young people, most jobs are geared for the young living at home with minimum wage and low hours offered. Out of the 323,000 jobs that were lost last year and majority of them were owned by parents that were supporting young employed and now displaced by generous government with plenty of global cash handouts rather than taking care of its own. Let the record bankruptcies continue again this year, I think Stephen Harper has to stop walking and chewing gum so he can think. Jack Layton got it right; Harper can’t be trusted and if my bank and my finances looked like Canada’s I’d be pulling out my account like businesses are pulling out of Canada.