Saturday, June 27, 2009

PC Ontario leadership race: Hudak leads after first round

First round results of the PC Party of Ontario’s leadership vote are now in. Tim Hudak heads into the second round with 3,512 votes, followed by Frank Klees with 3,094 and Christine Elliott with 2,729. Sadly, Randy Hillier with 1,014 votes will now be removed from the ballot and his votes redistributed based on his supporters’ second choice.

I fully expected Christine Elliott would be in second place at this point, but I congratulate Frank Klees on such a strong showing in the first round. This will surely go to three rounds since none of the three remaining candidates can win the second round with even 100 per cent of Hillier’s vote. The second ballot will decide who will make it to the third and final round.

I believe Hudak will benefit most from Hiller being dropped. Look for him to pick up about 700 former Hillier votes, moving him to the final ballot in a strong position to carry the day. Christine Elliott will benefit least from Hiller’s votes—about 100 votes or less. That leaves about 200 votes to go to Frank Klees.

The real question now looks to be how Elliot supporters’ second choice will break down, as she will almost certainly be dropped after the second round. When that happens, I fear for Tim Hudak’s chances, for it seems to me Elliott supporters will go more heavily to Klees.

For now I’ll keep my fingers crossed that Hudak will prevail.

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© 2009 Russell G. Campbell
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  1. I tend to agree with your assessment; we just may well have Klees heading up the party - something I don't relish much. The 2nd ballot results should be very interesting. I don't think many of Elliot's supporters expected to see her drop off in the second round - I know I didn't.

  2. That's how I think it will go too.

    As an aside, I hope people are seeing the benefits of the STV form of ballotting. By voting once, it saves time and hassle for each round. And best of all, the eventual winner was named as first second or third on over 50% of the ballots, so there is always a majority winner.

    It would be nice to see something like this used in general elections too.

    *** Don't confuse STV with PR like they did in BC recently. They are 2 very different things; STV good; PR bad.