Saturday, June 27, 2009

Hudak widens his lead in PC Ontario’s leadership race

The second ballot results are in at the PC Ontario leadership convention, and Tim Hudak remains in first place with 4,128.5 votes to Frank Klees’s 3,299.8. Christine Elliott is in third place with a respectable though disappointing 2,903.6 votes, not enough to keep her on the third ballot. Obviously, Hudak picked up just over 600 of Randy Hillier’s 1,014 first ballot votes to strengthen his lead going into the third ballot.

This means Elliott will be dropped for the next round, and it’s anybody’s guess how her vote will split. Most would put Elliott and Hudak at opposite ends of the political spectrum—at least the PC Party’s spectrum of left- vs right-wing—and Klees would be somewhere in the middle of that. So I’d guess Klees will benefit more form Elliott’s third place finish.

Klees, however, will need to pick up more than 60 per cent of Elliott’s support to win. This may be a lot to expect, but I won’t start congratulating Hudak just yet.

It has certainly been a close race so far and I’m expecting this to continue with Hudak winning by a narrow margin.

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© 2009 Russell G. Campbell
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  1. Good analysis Russ, but illogical conclusion.
    Based on the explanation you just gave, the obvious conclusion is that ALL Christine's votes would go to Klees. The only uncertainty that keeps alive any hope for Tim, is the number of her ballots that have no 2nd choice at all.

    Advantage: Klees

  2. Well, so much for logic. Who woulda guessed that so many Elliott voters would vote Hudak as 2nd choice.

    You called it, Russ.