Thursday, June 18, 2009

Federal parties back in statistical tie

The two main federal parties are back in a statistical dead heat according to Reuters. A weekly Ekos survey for the CBC television network has the Grits are holding on to a 1.3 per cent lead over the Conservatives: Liberals are at 33.7 per cent, down from 35.0 per cent last week. The Conservatives climbed to 32.4 percent from 30.3 per cent.

The poll was done before PM Stephen Harper and Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff agreed on Wednesday to avert a summer election, and perhaps explains why the chief grit was not exhibiting quite the same level of bravado we’ve been seeing in recent weeks. Nothing like a drop in the polls to cool the ardour for the campaign trail.

These results come after the Liberals had opened up significant leads in Ontario and Quebec, the two provinces in which the next general election will be decided. The current data, however, show neither side could now be sure of winning a federal election, never mind forming a majority.

The fine print: The Ekos survey of 3,422 adults was conducted using a hybrid Internet-telephone research panel between June 10 and June 16 and is considered accurate to within 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

You can read more here.

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© 2009 Russell G. Campbell
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  1. A majority is out of the question for any party in the foreseeable future. The Conservatives had the ideal scenario in 2008 and still couldn't pull one off. Two strong mainstream parties and two strong secondary parties means no majorities. We'd need to see either the Liberals or the Tories drop to 70 seats or so, which is hard to imagine. Dion's result last year was pretty much the Liberal floor.

  2. The poll might be a little hazy in terms of who might win an election, but one thing it points out is clear... There is no country wide Obama-style surge for Iggy. That's for sure.

  3. After years of complaining that I never get called for one of the 6.5 billion polls conducted each year, I finally got called for this on - on my cell too which was a surprise. Anyway, count me as one of the 32.4 that got the answer correct.

  4. The closeness of the polling would certainly explain why Harper is going to such great lengths to pour the pork into Tory ridings with 85% of Nova Scotia stimulus money going to the Tories. Disgusting.

    Conservatives: They're only in it for themselves.

  5. The stimulus projects look pretty well dispersed to me Ted,
    check out the govt interactive website map,
    zoom in on Nova Scotia for details on each project approved by the Premier/municiple gov.

    In fact, when all is said and done, betcha every one of the 308 ridings get a little grease!
    Yah know, the Cons 308 strategy...

  6. Actually, Wilson, that map has already been shown to be complete spin and very misrepresentative.

    Many journalists have followed through on them and found that they've included pretty much every project that has applied and not just the ones that have been approved.

    The reality is that before the recession the Conservatives were funnelling about 90% of infrastructure money into Tory ridings and they are already clearly and demonstrably doing the same. As shown in the link, 85% of projects in Tory ridings have received approval, whereas 70% of projects in non-Tory ridings have been rejected or not given approval.

    Conservatives: they're just in it for themselves.