Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Poll favouring a Harper government

From Nik on the Numbers:

Results of today’s CPAC-Nanos tracking poll show the Conservatives are still holding strong nationally at 38%, followed by the Liberals at 31%, the NDP at 17%, and the Green Party and the Bloc Québecois tied at 7%. On the CPAC-exclusive leadership index scorecard evaluating trust, competence and national vision, Stephen Harper leads with 108 points, followed by Jack Layton at 51 points, Stéphane Dion who has dropped to 32 points, Elizabeth May at 14 points and Gilles Duceppe at 13. Stephane Dion’s one day drop (from 48 to 32 points) coincided with Bob Rae’s intervention in the campaign yesterday attacking the Conservatives and the NDP. Even factoring the personal Dion drop, there was no impact on support for the Liberals.

You can see the details here.


  1. hey russ? did you see the part of the poll that gives 40 % support in ontario to the libs while the cons are down 3 points to 33%?

    what does it all mean? beyond meaningless leadership polling, the actual numbers have the tories trending down.

    does this mean a liberal govt? probably not but it makes the likelihood of a majority conservative govt less likely.

  2. And, Jeff, did you forget to mention that the Conservatives are up 4 points in Quebec?

    I don't agree leadership polling is meaningless. The leader reflects the core of a party. In the Canadian system, the prime minister is the single most influential office in the land. Who is campaigning for that office matters, and what Canadians think of that person is of importance.

    And, no, I don't think there will be a Liberal government. If they pick a leader who is not a total insult to Canadians, though, all bets will be off.