Friday, September 12, 2008

Harper could be headed for majority

Great news for Tory supporters. Stephen Harper's Conservative Party of Canada is moving ahead in the polls. One poll even has them at 41%—generally considered majority territory. Cautious optimism is definitely called for here, but read on.

According to the National Post:

  • An Ekos poll put public support for the Conservatives at 36% compared to 26% for the Liberals. The New Democrats — who are competing with the Liberals for the same bloc of voters — were at 19%.
    (The survey of 4,367 decided voters carried out between Sept 8 and 11 is considered accurate to within 1.5%age points, 19 times out of 20.)
  • A Harris-Decima poll broke with that trend, however, and put the Conservatives at 41% and the Liberals at 26%, with the New Democrats on 14 points. A Harris-Decima poll released Monday had put the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals by 36 points to 28.
    (Harris-Decima surveyed 1,188 decided or leaning voters from Sept. 8-11, a sample size that carries a margin of error of 2.9 points 19 times out of 20.)
  • A Nanos Research daily tracking poll put the Conservatives on 38%, up one point from the previous day, with the Liberals down a point on 31%. The New Democrats were up one point at 14%.
    (The survey of 975 decided voters is considered accurate to within 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)


  1. Ekos called me yesterday for that vote. First time I ever had one of those, felt great! lol.

  2. I always approach the thought of a majority with extreme caution. Never discount the Liberals and their allies in the media. If a pooping bird or an stupid email can fill the news for a couple of days, imagine what will happen if they really screw up. We still have a long way to go.

    Still, it sure would be nice.

  3. A minority government will be fine. Bloc and Libs will be searching for a new leader, and both parties have to reinvent themselves.
    Libs have a May 2009 convention, then it will take 6 months or so for Rae and Iggy to get over their second leadership race loss, another 6 months or so to sew the LPC back together.
    And Canadians still get the choice of keeping PMSH in power.
    A minority will be fine.