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Monday, November 5, 2012

Obama will win tomorrow’s too-close-to-call election

Tomorrow, Americans head to the polls for a presidential election most pundits agree is too close to call. The more reliable polls show the lead, if any, within their margin of error, and some pundits believe the winner of the most Electoral College votes may not win the popular vote.

That’s close, folks.

Despite the closeness of the polls, though, I have a growing belief that incumbent President Obama will prevail and win a second term in the White House. And, not only will he win, but he’ll do so convincingly, taking up to 300 or more electoral votes.

Most polls show the President in a slim lead or tie, and a tie, I believe, will go to the status quo—to the devil American voters know, i.e., Obama. Furthermore, Romney’s comeback since the first debate, in which he outperformed the President, was softened and been somewhat blunted by the President’s solid performance in the two later debates and his excellent, presidential, performance relating to the storm-ravaged East Coast. And enthusiastic praise from New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has not hurt in that regard.

Moreover, recent economic news seems to have broken in the President’s favour. America’s economy is recovering and with it are the rising hopes of a second term for Obama. The President is seen in a more favourable light now by voters in general than at almost any time in the past couple of years—except, of course, when the news broke about Osama Bin Laden’s capture and execution by American special forces.

It’s too bad for Americans—and for me—that the “real” Mitt Romney took so long to emerge and show his stuff to America at large. Gone now is the hard-right conservative we saw at the height of the GOP nomination race from late winter through most of this past summer to be replaced by a moderate, who exudes confidence and comes across as, well, presidential.

America sorely needs a conservative at the helm. And a conservative with a strong track record as a businessman would be a glove-fit.

But America does not need a hard-right, my-way-or-the-highway conservative beholden to the extreme elements of the Republican Party, who wants to take the nation back to the George Bush era of American hegemony at the expense of rational foreign and domestic policy—and fiscal responsibility.

To win over those extreme elements and secure the presidential nomination, Mitt Romney had to turn himself inside out—become someone he was not and never was—and, in the process, ruin his chances of winning over enough of the general population to win the White House.

Romney’s come damn close though. The New York Times observes, the:

…political prize that eluded him in 2008 … is suddenly within agonizingly close reach, despite it all: an ugly and seemingly endless primary, wall-to-wall attacks by Democrats on the private equity firm he founded, a botched foreign trip and, not infrequently, gaffes.”

Yes, thanks to a mediocre first term, President Obama has put his continued presidency in jeopardy. And only extreme elements in a recalcitrant Republican Party has saved his presidency from history’s dustbin—and that fate may yet overtake this President.

It’ll be a long night on Tuesday—I can hardly wait for the outcome.

 

5 comments :

  1. If Obama wins Ohio he has a chance. If Romney wins Pennsylvania it is a landslide.
    No offence Russ,follow American politics much?
    The status quo is not acceptable to the people, they liked being winners not whiners.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, Anon, I do follow U.S. politics quite a bit and have been doing so since the fifties.

      "If Obama wins Ohio he has a chance." Has a chance? Conventional wisdom seems to say whoever wins Ohio wins the White House.

      But we'll see what happens tonight.

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  2. All the major pollsters have oversized Dem samples. Romney already has a 250,000 vote swing in his favour in Ohio -- the same margin by which Obama won it in 2008. Romney will also take Wisconsin due to the gay marriage proposition.

    Game over Obama.

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment was deleted in error:

    By Anonymous 11/05/12 at 10:20pm

    "But America does not need a hard-right, my-way-or-the-highway conservative beholden to the extreme elements of the Republican Party, who wants to take the nation back to the George Bush era of American hegemony at the expense of rational foreign and domestic policy—and fiscal responsibility."
    Okay, so what they need is a hard-left, my-way-or-the-highway progressive beholden to the extreme elements of the Democratic Party, who want to take the nation backward to the Roosevelt era of American socialism at the expense of rational foreign and domestic policy and fiscal responsibility.
    See how easy that was.

    ReplyDelete
  4. I am not religious, but don't know how the American people can vote for the Democratic Party who at their convention obviously didn't want to put one mention of God in their platform. Not to mention Jerusalem.

    Romney will win because the silent majority is tired of Obama and wants to give someone else a chance to solve things.

    ReplyDelete

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