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Thursday, November 22, 2012

Federal Liberals overtaking New Democrats in poll

The federal Liberals have moved into second place with 29.0 per cent of committed voters behind the first place Conservatives who have 33.8 per cent support. This according to a Nanos Research Survey conducted between November 9th and 15th, 2012.

Thomas Mulcair’s NDP trail the frontrunners with only 27.2 per cent, a decline of 0.7 percent in the past month, while the Greens and the BQ have 3.7 and 4.9 per cent of support respectively.

The poll is a Nanos national random telephone survey of 1,004 Canadians of voting age. The results are said by Nanos to be accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. For 776 committed voters, it is accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Interesting—for some heartening—to see support for the Dippers on the wane. It wasn’t too long ago that we were hearing a lot about a “government in waiting” and similar optimistic assessments of Mulcair’s NDP. Perhaps even more worrying for the Dippers is the apparent resurgence of support for the Grits in Quebec (31.6%)—perhaps it’s in anticipation of another native son, Justin Trudeau, taking the helm of the Liberal party.

Outside of Quebec, PM Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are ahead across the country and especially in Ontario (39.7%), Prairies (48.4%), and British Columbia (39.4%). In Quebec, the news is more sobering with a paltry 11.5 per cent support. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are in the barest of leads (0.2%) over the Grits.

When it comes to voters’ assessments of the individual leaders, however, there is no contest: PM Stephen Harper has a comfortable lead in the categories of “trust,” “competence” and “vision of Canada.” And the “Total Leadership Index Score” for the leaders are: Harper – 104.2,  Mulcair – 43.6, Rae – 37.7.

Like many readers, I don’t set too much store by opinion polls, but they do indicate trends and, for Conservatives, the trend is positive and good news is always welcome.

1 comment :

  1. Very predictable during a leadership race.
    Look at the March 2012 numbers during NDP leadership race: NDP and CPC tied at 30%

    and this is very significant considering 30 new seats coming in these provinces
    ''...PM Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are ahead across the country and especially in Ontario (39.7%), Prairies (48.4%), and British Columbia (39.4%).

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